Forecast of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USDX currency pairs
Pay attention to the compression of USDX quotes to the accumulation zone of 92.00–92.15. The price chart shows that all the highs are lower than the previous one – this indicates a clear weakness of buyers. As a result, the risk of a breakout of the 92.00 support and further weakening of the US dollar remains elevated. The bearish scenario takes into account the decline of the index to 91.30.
Today, the US will report on the change in the rate of inflation (consumer price index). Economists forecast growth to 2.5% year-on-year, the highest since January 2020. Confirmation and even more exceeding the forecast may provide short-term support for USDX.
There were no significant changes in the overall trading dynamics of this currency pair, we still observe its consolidation in a narrowing price range around 1.1900. The longer the pair quotes are held in the sideways, especially narrow, the higher the likelihood of a strong unidirectional price movement.
Until the price returns below 1.1855, the bullish scenario remains in priority. Today, Germany and the Eurozone will receive data on business sentiment from the ZEW Institute. Exceeding the forecast growth may provide moderate short-term support for the euro.
The activity of buyers at 1.3750 remains moderate, while it is important to take into account the fact that the pair is still held in the sideways 1.3675–1.3800. Active trading within this range remains unreasonable. Mixed data on GDP, industrial production and Britain's trade balance only added to the uncertainty. Therefore, the further direction of the price movement will depend on the strength of the US dollar and, as a result, on the publication of data in the inflation report.
The pair's quotes are stuck in the sideways 109.30–109.85. The inability of the pair's quotes to overcome the support at the 109.30 mark is a bad signal for sellers, while only their return above 110.00 and the subsequent fixation of quotes above the marked level can confirm the willingness of buyers to continue growing to 111.30.
The further direction of the price movement will depend on the USD. Only a general strengthening of the American currency can provide the necessary support for this currency pair.
The above overview is not a direct guide to action, but only a recommendation.